• In the mid-1970s, while studying oxides and selected minerals, anomalies were noticed in the behaviour of these materials, which had never been properly understood. This work led to the discovery peroxy defects. After some 40 years of research – combining solid state and semiconductor physics, material science, electrochemistry and various forms of spectroscopy– Friedemann Freund and his scientific team succeeded characterizing these peroxy defects and their properties. By the late 1990 s and early 2000s it became clear that i) most rocks, especially those deeper into the Earth’s crust, contain minerals that are laced with peroxy defects, and
    ii) stress is able to activate these peroxy defects, causing highly mobile electronic charge carriers to be released, including “positive holes”, which produce an array of secondary and tertiary reactions inside the Earth crust, at the Earth surface, in bodies of water, in the atmosphere all the way up to the ionosphere.
    Understanding the properties of peroxy defects and of their progeny, the positive holes, provided the key to understanding the wide and often bewildering array of non-seismic pre-earthquake phenomena, which in turn paved the way towards an actionable earthquake forecast system.
    To achieve our goal we will study the following precursors;

    All three diagrams A, B, and C contain boxes for the basic processes that take place in the Earth’s crust, the outflow of positive hole charges. The primary expressions are dc magnetic field changes, ac magnetic field changes and unipolar pulses. We expect to deploy sensors of our own development at most stations (outside urban areas) to capture these signals.  As to the infrasound sensor, we may not deploy any of those, because we plan to first put them into the field in Peru and see what we can learn. 




    Diagram A contains on the left the boxes in the oval red circle. We do not plan to study those except that Gerassimos Papadopoulos may be interested in recording the microseismicity as part of this supportive analysis of seismological records.

    Diagram A contains on the right parameters pertaining to changes in the water. We plan to deploy cation/anion sensors and fluorescence sensors in all stations that have access to ground or well water. 

    (1)        Ionospheric anomalies are typically detectable days to weeks before major seismic events. They express themselves as increases in the Total Electron Content (TEC), best recorded at night when the effects of the solar radiation on the ionosphere are less than during the day. TEC anomalies can be recorded by (i) GPS technology to reconstruct tomographic images of the ionosphere over seismically active regions; (ii) “over-the-horizon” FM radio wave transmission to detect changes in the morning or evening terminator times; and (iii) long-distance AM radio waves reflected off the ionosphere over the seismically active region.

    (2)        Thermal Infrared (TIR) anomalies express themselves as (i) radiative temperature increase of the Earth surface and (ii) radiative temperature increase at the top of the clouds, also known as Long Wavelength Infrared anomalies. TIR anomalies mark the epicentral region and become detectable days to weeks before major earthquakes. They can be detected by satellite-borne infrared imagers.  Medium resolution images can be obtained from MODIS on the NASA satellites TERRA and AQUA, each providing one data point during the day and one during the night per each 24-hour period. Detection is also possible using geostationary weather satellite images, every 15-30 min, to record night time cooling curves .
    (3)        Anomalous CO release from the ground is currently retrievable from the MOPPIT sensor on board the NASA TERRA satellite providing daily global data.



    Diagram B contains the green boxes. We expect to place ground potential sensors and tree potential sensors at all stations in rural areas.

    Diagram B contains the light blue boxes. Stations with soil conductivity sensors will be placed at stations, maybe 20 out of 120, where we can install the necessary ground electrodes in a similar manner like the Chinese have been doing it for decades.  The trace gas sniffers for CO emission are to be combined with the ozone sniffers and air ionization sensors shown on Diagram C. As to the radon emission, we’ll wait until we hear to what extent we may be able to revitalize the network of radon sensing stations originally set up by Sedat Inan. Don’t pay attention to the last box with CO2, H2, He which require mostly lab analysis.

    (4)        Increase in positive and negative air ion concentrations using networks of ground stations to measure air ionization, typically 100-200 km apart.
    (5)        Changes in the total magnetic field intensity, x, y, z-components to be measured by ground stations typically less than 100 km apart.
    (6)        Emission of ultralow frequency (ULF) electromagnetic (EM) waves from the ground. Both of these unipolar pulses typically last between 100 msec and 1-2 sec. Continuous ULF wave trains last minutes to hours, and their x, y, z-components can be measured by ground stations preferentially about 50 km apart.
    (7)        Regional changes in radio frequency noise at different frequencies from very low to medium low (VLF-LF).
    (8)        Soil resistivity changes can be detected 1-2 m deep as measured by 4-point ground electrode systems, typically less than 100 km apart.
    (9)        Radon emanation from the soil by stations, typically less than 100 km apart.

    (10)      Changes in water chemistry at commercial n natural spring water bottling companies or from ground water wells, typically 1-2 for every watershed.

    Diagram C contains most boxes, but only a few refer to local ground station needs. The most important is the blue box for positive (and negative) air ionization, which we plan to measure at as many stations as possible. Linked to air ionization are the orange boxes for corona discharges which lead to ozone formation, TV signal perturbations and more. Ozone sniffers with be co-located with CO sniffers on Diagram B. Corona discharges lead to broad-band radio noise and, hence, TV signal perturbations.  To detect those it will be enough to equip maybe 20 sensors out of 120 total network.

    The yellow box for the Thermal Infrared Emission and all purple boxes refer to information to be retrieved from satellite data – except for the Chromatic Shifts, for which it will be enough to deploy a camera with fish-eye lens and sensitivity into the near-infrared at one or two locations.  All other satellite information can be monitored at any location in California, Switzerland, Turkey or anywhere else around the globe.

  • Our Earthquake Forecast System will monitor many precursory signals to develop combined probability maps of the likelihood of impending major earthquakes. Here is block diagram of precursory indicators that will be used in building and implementing the Earthquake Forecast system:
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